人口老龄化对社会经济发展影响的测算

Estimation of Impact of Population Aging on Social Economic Development

文章分析人口结构对消费、储蓄及劳动力供给的影响机制,预测2011—2050年陕西省人口的老龄化发展趋势。构建陕西省人口老龄化动态CGE模型,通过建模分析人口老龄化对陕西省经济的影响,分析表明人口老龄化因素在未来将严重制约陕西省的经济发展。

This paper firstly analyzes the impact mechanism of population structure on consumption, savings and labor supply, and forecasts the population aging trends of Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2050. And then the paper constructs a dynamic CGE model of Shaanxi Province＇ s population aging, and analyzes the impact of population aging on the economy of Shaanxi Province through modeling. The analysis result shows that the factors of aging population will seriously restrict the economic develop- ment of Shaanxi Province in the future.