中国不同时段气候变暖速率的时空分异研究(1961—2014)

Spatiotemporal patterns of different period climate warming rate in China (1961—2014)

基于多种统计方法,采用534个站点数据诊断中国1961—2014年年均气温变化.结果表明:在时间序列上,中国年均气温整体呈现出增加趋势,但是各时段变化趋势却又各不相同,分别表现出"减—增—增—增—减"的动态变化特征,并且在不同时间尺度上表现出2~6、20、40和60a左右的波动特征,在1998年左右中国年均气温发生突变,气温变暖出现停滞.在空间分布上,中国年均气温1961—2014年近100%的站点均呈增加趋势,且此时段各年代相对整个研究段呈增加趋势的站点比例依次是2.6%、32.9%、78.8%、86.0%和11.2%.尤其是1960时段和2000年以后是大面积气温趋势下降显著的时段,而1971—2000年是中国大面积显著增加的时段.不论是气温趋势增加或减少,青藏高原和东北地区均在空间分异格局中率先表现出十分显著的变化特征.尤其是2000年以来中国年均气温变化出现了明显的停滞现象,与此时段的二氧化碳急剧上升形成了十分鲜明的对比.对于气候变暖停滞的原因,仍存在诸多不确定的认识,亟待进行深入系统的研究.

Different statistical methods and data from 534 meteorological stations were used to diagnose variations in average annual temperature in China from 1961-2014. Time series of annual average temperature of China presented an increasing trend. Decade trend in annual average temperature was found to be different, with the following characteristics： decrease-increase-increase-increase-decrease. Annual average temperature showed fluctuation characteristics with different time scales： 2-6, 20, 40, and 60 years. An abrupt change was found for 1998： climate warming stopped. For spatial distributions, annual average temperature in all meteoro- logical stations showed increases from 1961-2014. Meteorological stations with increasing trend on decade scales compared with the whole study period accounted for 2.6%, 32.9%, 78.8%, 86. 0% and 11. 2% respectively. Especially the 1960s and 2000s showed significant decreasing trend in large areas. Annual average temperature showed significant increasing trend from 1971-2000 in large areas. Either increasing or decreasing trend, northeastern China and Qinghai-Tibet plateau showed significant variations in spatial patterns. From 2000 annual average temperature in China has showed marked stagnation, although carbon dioxide emission showed sharp rise in the same period. Different theories could possibly explain the stagnation in climate warming, although many uncertainties await further investigation.