宁波市城镇化发展对农民收入增长影响的实证研究——基于1985—2014年的时间序列数据分析

Empirical research on how urbanization development affects farmers' income growth in Ningbo City:based on the analysis of time series from 1985 to 2014

以宁波市1985—2014年的农民收入及城镇化率数据为基础,运用时间序列分析法研究城镇化发展对农民收入增长的影响,旨在为宁波推进新型城镇化提供一定的对策参考。研究结果表明:农民收入会随着城镇化率的提升而增加,但无论是长期还是短期,二者都不具备双向因果关系,城镇化并不是农民收入增加的格兰杰原因,而农民增收一直是城镇化率提升的格兰杰原因,提升宁波城镇化率的关键在于提高农民收入。

Based on farmers＇ income and urbanization rate data of Ningbo, the paper researches on the impacts of ur- banization on the growth of farmers＇ income through time series analysis as to give some suggestions to Ningho＇s new- type urbanization. The results of the study show that farmers＇ income will increase along with the urbanization rate of ascension. There is no two-way causal relationship between them, whether long-term or short-term. Urbanization does not granger cause the increase of farmers＇ income, but the increasing farmers＇ income has been the granger reason of urbanization fate＇s ascension. The key to increase the rate of urbanization is to raise farmers＇ income in Ninsbo.