影子银行体系对我国货币政策工具规则选择的影响——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析

A Study on the Influence of the Shadow Banking System on the Selection of the Monetary Policy Tool Rule in China——Based on the DSGE Model of the Numerical Simulation Analysis

本文通过建立包含影子银行和商业银行等多个部门在内的DSGE模型,利用不同货币政策工具规则反应系数的OLS估计结果,探索解决在充分发展影子银行背景下的货币政策工具规则的选择问题。模型分析结果表明,利率规则在稳定产出、物价方面发挥的作用更明显,利率规则未来应作为我国货币政策工具规则的最优选择。同时,比较货币政策工具规则的福利损失得出结论,三种货币政策工具规则的福利损失从小到大分别是利率规则、混合规则和货币供应量规则,这也表明利率规则是我国货币政策工具规则的最优选择。

This Paper constructs the DSGE model containing multiple departments such as shadow banks and commercial banks,and makes use of different tools of monetary policy rule response coefficient estimation results of OLS,to explore the problem of choosing in the full development of the shadow banks under the background of the monetary policy tool rules. The model analysis results show that in terms of stable output and price,interest rate rule plays a greater role and should be regarded as the optimal choice of monetary policy tool rule in the future in China. Moreover,the comparison of the welfare loss in different monetary policy tool rules comes to the the same conclusion： the welfare loss of the three kinds of monetary policy tool rules increases from Interest rule to Mixing rule to Money supply rule,which also indicates that Interest rate rule is the optimal choice of China＇s monetary policy tool rule.