2008年以来“一带一路”国家汇率风险研究

Studies on exchange rate risks among ＂Belt and Road＂ nations since 2008

三年多来，“一带一路”建设成果超出预期，中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易和投资增长明显加快，但也面临一些困难，其中之一就是汇率风险较大。文章以亚洲、中东欧、独联体、西亚北非为大类，具体回顾了“一带一路”沿线各国的货币汇率走势及其汇率机制。指出多数国家货币大幅贬值的一个重要原因是汇率机制僵化。因此，相关企业必须要高度重视“一带一路”国家的汇率风险，当局需要分工协作，帮助企业管理汇率风险。

Over the last three years, the achievements of the ＂Belt and Road＂ construction have been better than expected. The trade and investment growth between China and the ＂Belt and Road＂ nations have accelerated significantly. Yet there are still some difficulties, one of which is about the big exchange rate risks. The paper divides countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂ into four major groups, namely Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and West Asia and North Africa, and reviews the exchange rate mechanisms and currency movements of these countries. It points out that one of the most important reasons of the substantial depreciation of these countries＇ currencies lies in the rigid exchange rate mechanisms. Therefore, enterprises shall attach great importance to the exchange rate risks of the ＂Belt and Road＂ countries, and financial institutions and authorities need to work together to help enterprises mana qe exchange rate risks.