中国航班轮档时间延误损失研究

Study on delay cost of block time in China

航空延误是当前社会关注点,测算航班时间延误及其损失很有必要。为测算轮档时间的延误及其经济损失,以分机型业务量数据为基础,通过不同类型函数比较,采用对数模型拟合速度与航程之间的关系,得出中国航班轮档时间的变化特征。在此基础上,以2005年航程-航速关系为基准,测算历年航空公司、旅客、货邮的轮档时间延误规模。根据相关活动的单位时间价值,估算得到历年中国航班轮档延误损失,为测算中国航空运输延误损失提供了依据。经过测算,2015年旅客、货邮、航空公司轮档时间延误带来的经济损失分别为22.0亿元、11.5亿元、236.2亿元。

Since air delay is a current hotspot of social concern, it is necessary to accurately estimate flight delays and loss based on air traffic data. Logarithmic model is used to fit the relationship between speed and distance and the trend ot＂ flight time in China is drawn. With the relationship between speed and distance in 2005, flight delays of airlines, passengers, cargoes and mails are estimated. Based on the unit value of time-related activities, the flight delay cost is estimated. The delay costs of passengers, cargoes and mails, and airlines are respectively ￥2.20 billion, ￥1.15 billion and ￥23.60 billion in 2015.