日元汇率波动与日元贸易结算货币地位分析

The Relationship between Volatility of the Yen Exchange Rate and Position of Yen in International Trade Settlement

日本政府于20世纪80年代开始推动日元国际化,试图提升日元在国际贸易结算中的使用比例。但迄今为止,日元国际化并没有达到预期效果,日元在贸易结算中的使用比例仍然偏低。同时,日元国际化进程始终伴随着日元汇率的大幅度波动。汇率波动对日元在进口贸易结算中的比例具有正向影响,汇率波动使外国出口商更倾向于选择日元结算;但是,汇率波动会减少日元在出口贸易结算中的使用比例。日元汇率波动与日元结算货币地位之间的这种关系对人民币汇率制度改革具有一定的启示意义,在人民币汇率制度改革的过程中应谨慎地逐步放松汇率形成制度,防止汇率大幅波动对人民币国际化造成不利影响。

Japan has begun to promote the process of Yen internationalization since the 1980＇s, trying to in- crease the proportion of Yen used in international trade settlement. But so far, Japan has not accomplished the goal. The proportion of Yen used in international trade settlement is still low. In addition, the process of Yen internationalization has always been accompanied by substantial volatility of the Yen exchange rate. In this pa- per, we construct an empirical model to test something, and the results are as follows. Firstly, exchange rate volatility has a positive impact on the ratio of Yen used in import trade settlement, as exchange rate fluctua- tions make foreign exporters would prefer to choose Yen to settle. Then, the relation of the exchange rate fluc- tuation to the proportion of Yen used in export trade settlement is on the contrary. All the things above have some enlightenment for the reform of the RMB exchange rate system. We suggest that the RMB exchange rate system should be carefully reformed to prevent the RMB internationalization from being adversely affected by the volatility of the RMB exchange rate.