质量、数量双重视角下的中国人口红利经济效应变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Change Trend of China's Demographic Dividend Economic Effect from the Perspective of Population Quality and Population Quantity

文章通过扩展MRW模型构建包括人口年龄结构和人力资本结构的内生经济增长模型。从理论上分析人口数量红利与人口质量红利对经济增长的影响机制和两者之间的替代关系,并利用中国1989~2014年各省数据进行验证。结果表明:人口质量红利会因人口年龄结构变化对人力资本投资率和投资结构产生影响,从而形成对人口数量红利的替代作用。人口数量红利对我国经济增长的平均贡献率为12.86%,其中贡献最大的年份是1990~2001年,平均贡献率在20%左右,2010年之后其贡献率开始明显下降。人口质量红利对我国经济增长的平均贡献率为8.39%,其贡献率总体呈现波动中不断上升的趋势。人口质量红利的贡献率在2010年前后开始明显上升并超越人口数量红利的贡献率,也即从那时起人口质量红利开始逐步替代人口数量红利成为中国经济增长新的动力源。研究结论表明在进行经济政策设计时必须充分认识和把握中国经济这种新的动力机制和要素特点,主动适应经济增长的新趋势,积极顺应增长要素变化的新要求。

In order to theoretically analyze the influence of the ＂Population Quantity Dividend＂ and ＂Popu- lation Quality Dividend＂ on economic growth. This paper constructs an endogenous economic growth model including population age structure and human capital structure by extending the MRW model. The paper use of data from the provinces of China from 1989 to 2013 to verify above hypothesis. Results show： ＂Popu- lation Quantity Dividend＂ effects on ＂Population Quality Dividend＂ by investment rate and investment structure of human capital, which leads to substitution effect of population quality to quantity. ＂Population Quantity Dividend＂ for the average contribution of China＇ s economic growth rate was 12.86%, and the larg- est is from 1900 to 2000. Its contribution rate began to decline significantly after 2010. The average contri- bution rate of the population quality dividend to China＇ s economic growth is 8.39%, and its contribution rate shows a rising trend. In the long term, the ＂Population Quality Dividend＂ begins to form a ＂Population Quantity Dividend＂ of the substitution effect. The above conclusions show that in the process of economic development in the future, we should pay attention to the new dynamic mechanism and the characteristics of the elements.