中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响

The Effects of Financial Inclusion Development on Trade Margin and Structure in China

研究目标:考察中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响。研究方法:首先从理论上探讨了普惠金融发展对于贸易的影响,提出普惠制金融发展不仅会从集约边际和扩展边际两个方面影响贸易的规模,而且会因为行业间外部融资依赖度的差异而影响贸易的结构。然后,运用我国10个省份15个制造行业2004~2013年的数据,检验了普惠金融发展对于地区出口的影响。研究发现:普惠金融的发展对于出口总体上具有促进作用,不过,普惠金融对于出口的影响在行业上具有显著的异质性,总体来说,在外部融资依赖度较高的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口呈现出较多正向影响,而在外部融资依赖度较低的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口越多呈现出较多负向影响。研究创新:理论上研究了普惠金融发展与国际贸易边际的关系,并运用中国的数据进行了验证。研究价值:对于促进中国普惠金融体系的构建和贸易转型升级具有一定的政策启示。

Research Objectives： This paper examines the impact of financial inclusion development on trade margin and structure. Research Methods. We develop the theoretical relationship between financial inclusion development and the margin and structure of international trade, suggesting that financial inclusion development has a positive effect on trade scale from per- spective of intensive and extensive margin- moreover, it has impact on trade structure due to the difference of external finance dependence across industries. Then using the data of 10 provinces and 15 manufacturing industries over the period 2004-2013 in China, this paper tests the effect of financial inclusion development on exports. Research Findings： The estima- tion results confirm the positive effect of financial inclusion development on manufacturing exports, and indicating that this effect is heterogeneous across industries. Specifically, the development of financial inclusion is more often beneficial to exports in industries with high external finance dependence, and harmful to exports in industries with low external finance dependence. Research Innovations： We link financial inclusion development and trade mar- gin, and testing the relationship between them by the data of China. Research Value： The findings have policy implications for the development of financial inclusion and the upgrading and transforming of trade in China.