基于多目标优化的灌区水资源承载力研究

Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Irrigation Districts Based on Multi-Objective Optimization

根据灌区用水结构特点,综合考虑水资源与社会经济以及生态环境之间的动态联系,建立用水总量控制条件下的灌区水资源承载力多目标优化模型。以江西省赣抚平原灌区为例,得出现状年及规划年灌区水资源系统能够支撑的社会经济发展规模,利用相对承载指数和区域协调发展指数评价了灌区水资源承载力。结果表明:现状供水相当充裕,水资源综合承载指数大于1,水资源承载能力没有得到充分发挥;用水总量控制条件下,规划年水资源综合承载指数小于1,灌区水资源不足以支撑经济社会的发展。农业用水优化配置方案下,水资源承载力有所增强,表明农业用水优化配置是提高水资源承载力的有效手段。在实现农业用水优化配置及污染物排放量控制的条件下,灌区水资源、经济、环境的协调度达到0.99以上,真正实现了经济发展与环境保护的双赢。

In this paper,the multi-objective optimization model of water resources carrying capacity for irrigation district is established under the condition of water-using quantity control,based on the structural features of water use in irrigation districts as well as the dynamic relationship among water resource,ecological environment and social economy. Economic and social development scale supported by water resources system is calculated out in Ganfu Plains Irrigation District in the status year and the programming years. Meanwhile,we evaluate the water resources carrying capacity by using relative bearing index and regional coordinated development index. The results show that comprehensive bearing index of water is more than one owing to abundant water supply in the status year,which indicates that water resources carrying capacity in Ganfu Plains Irrigation District has not been fully exploited. But the index is less than one under the condition of waterusing quantity control in the programming years,which shows that the water resources can not underpin economy and social development. The water resources carrying capacity is enhanced when the configuration of agricultural water is optimized,so optimizing configuration of agricultural water is an effective measure to improve the water resources carrying capacity. Regional coordinated development index is more than 0.99 under the optimizing configuration of agricultural water and controlling pollutant emissions,to really realize win-win between economic development and environmental protection.