摘要
在大坝服役运行过程中,大坝的实时阈值问题具有重要意义。基于极值理论,针对大坝渗流量历史监测序列,拟定合理的阈值,采用极大似然方法对广义帕累托函数(GPD)的参数进行估计,建立渗流量变化值估计超阈值(POT)模型,然后运用风险厌恶函数对每个渗流量变化量进行风险评价,完成对极值谱风险模型的建立。针对某混凝土坝13号坝段某测点在时间段1974-2009年和时间段1974-2015年的渗流量监测数据,利用POT模型和极值谱风险模型分别完成对大坝渗流量阈值的度量,验证了极值谱风险测度模型更加安全合理。
It is of great significance to measure the threshold of dam in real time. Based on the extreme value theory,a reasonable threshold is established for the dam seepage flow history monitoring sequence,ELM is used to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution（GPD）,and the Peaks Over Threshold（POT） model of change value in seepage flow will be established. Then the risk aversion function is used to evaluate the risk of each Change of permeability. The establishment of extreme spectrum risk model is finished.Based on the Seepage flow monitor sequences of 1974-2009 and 1974-2015 of the 13 th monolith of a concrete dam,In this paper,the POT model and the extreme spectrum risk model are used to measure the seepage threshold in dam respectively,which proves that the extreme spectrum risk measurement model is safer and more reasonable.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2017年第8期166-169,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51479054)
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401601)
关键词
大坝
阈值
极值理论
极值谱风险模型
dam
threshold
extreme value theory
Extreme value spectrum risk model
