城乡保险消费的非线性特征——基于收入分布视角的理论与实证研究

Nonlinear Characteristics of Urban and Rural Insurance Consumption——A Theoretical and Empirical Research Based on the Perspective of Income Distribution

本文通过在收入分布视角下构建居民保险消费的理论模型,预见了保险消费的非线性特征及其对保险市场的潜在影响。并采用2011年CHFS数据分别建立城乡居民保险消费的门限回归模型,识别出了这种非线性特征。研究结果表明:可支配收入的提升虽能促进城镇低收入群体的保险消费,但对其高收入群体的作用有限;对农村低收入群体保险消费的影响并不显著,且会使高收入群体削减保险支出。该特征在收入分布变迁背景下将会导致居民总体保险消费的增长出现瓶颈。由此,在"供给侧"充分发挥商业保险机构的创新主导作用来激发高收入群体的保险消费活力,并在"需求侧"促使收入分配政策合理向低收入群体适度倾斜,将可能成为扭转当前局面的有效途径。此外,社保收入对保险消费的引导和调节作用还有待开发和加强。

This paper explored the existence of the nonlinear characteristics of insurance consumption and its influ- ence on the insurance market by building a theoretical model of insurance consumption under the perspective of in- come distribution. The nonlinear characteristics of insurance consumption were identified by using the threshold re- gression model based on the data of CHFS2011. The results show that, as the disposable income grows, urban low-in- come groups＇ insurance consumption is increased, but this has limited effects on urban high-income groups;income increase shows no significant influence on rural low-income groups, but can make rural high-income groups reduce their insurance consumption. These characteristics show that income distribution will give rise to an insurance con- sumption growth bottleneck. Therefore, an effective way to ensure the development of insurance market in China is to stimulate the high-income groups＇ consumption desire on the supply side through commercial insurers＇ innovation and make the income distribution policy tilt towards low-income groups on the demand side. In addition, the role of social security income in guiding and adjusting insurance consumption is yet to be developed and strengthened.