基于旅游出行特征的西安市流动人口总量预估模型

Prediction model of total floating population in Xi'an based on Tourism travel characteristics

近几年,伴随着全国道路网建设的蓬勃发展,城市间人口的流动频率逐渐加快。流动人口给城市的交通带来了巨大的挑战,尤其是对一些流动人口量较大的旅游城市,在国家法定节假日期间。研究目的:准确地把握西安市的流动人口数量,在节假日期间为西安市旅游景点制定管理策略及应对流动人口交通出行组织管理提供依据。研究方法:基于西安市2015年居民出行调查,在对景点与酒店问卷进行统计分析,得出了来西安流动人口的目的、交通方式、停留时间的交通出行特性,采用修正旅游局提供数据来建立流动人口总量预估模型。通过调查数据计算与实际数据对比得出模型的准确性。结论:提出的基于旅游出行特征的西安市流动人口总量预估模型具有准确性。研究成果可为为城市交通运营管理和景点管理部门应对节假日高流率人口流动制定管理策略提供依据。

In recent years, with the rapid development of national road network construction, the flow fre- quency of urban population has accelerated gradually. The floating population has brought great challenges to the urban transport, especially to some large tourist cities, during the national legal holidays. Objective： to accurately grasp the number of floating population in Xi an, to formulate management strategies for Xi an tourism attractions and to provide basis for the management of mobile population transit organization. Research methods ： based on the survey of residents travel in Xi an 2015, the statistical analysis of scenic spots and hotel questionnaires, the pur- pose, traffic mode and residence time characteristics of Xi an mobile population, using the revised tourism bureau to establish the total prediction model of mobile population. The accuracy of the model is obtained by comparing the data calculated with the actual data. Conclusion： the prediction model of Xi an mobile population based on tourism travel characteristics is accurate. The research results can provide the basis for the urban traffic operation manage- ment and scenic spot management to develop management strate-w for the high flow r-t- of r-nnld-tlon flow