财政政策、产能过剩与通货膨胀动态

Fiscal Policy, Overcapacity and Inflation Dynamics

本文从财政政策的角度解释中国CPI与PPI的相对动态特征。通过将异质性居民与企业以及借贷约束引入到动态随机一般均衡模型中,我们发现财政政策扩张会通过偏向性地带动生产资料企业产能,从供给侧抑制其价格水平。同时,借贷约束的存在使得此类企业能够更为容易地获得配套资金,从而导致其产能进一步扩张,使PPI相对于CPI持续下降。鉴于此,本文认为"财政政策—信贷—产能过剩"这一机制是理解我国在全球金融危机之后通货膨胀动态的关键。

This paper explains the dynamics between CPI and PPI in Chinese economy from the perspective of fiscal policy. By introducing heterogeneous households, firms and borrowing constraint into DSGE model, we find that fiscal policies can stimulate the capacity of upstream firms, and then depress PPI from the supply side. Meanwhile, this type of firms can obtain credit funds easilier because of borrowing constraint, which leads to further expansion of their capacity. All of these make a sustained drop in PPI. So we conclude that it is the mechanism involved with fiscal policy, credit and overcapacity that results as the key to understand the inflation dynamics after global financial crisis.