未确知测度理论在东川泥石流危险性评价中的应用

APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY MEASUREMENT THEORY TO EVALUATE DONGCHUAN DEBRIS FLOW RISK

将未确知测度理论应用到东川泥石流沟危险性评价中。根据实际工程地质条件,选取12个泥石流危险性影响因子作为评价指标,制定评价指标的危险性分级标准。根据未确知测度理论建立泥石流危险性评价指标的单指标测度函数,然后运用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,得到泥石流危险性的综合测度函数,最后使用置信度识别准则对泥石流危险性等级进行判定。将该方法应用于云南省东川地区12条泥石流沟,结果表明,该方法的判定结果比经典方法更符合实际,证明了该方法的合理性。

Uncertainty measurement theory was applied to evaluating Dongchuan debris flow risk. Fully considering various factors, 12 factors was selected as evaluation indexes of debris flow risk and grading standards of debris flow risk was also established. The single index measure function of debris flow risk assessment index was obtained based on uncertainty measurement theory, then analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the weights of evaluation indexes of debris flow risk, a comprehensive measuring function of debris flow risk was obtained. And debris flow risk was judged by credible degree recognition criteria. Finally, the method was employed to evaluate the risk of 12 debris flow gullies in Dongchuan city. The results showed that the method is more realistic compared with classical method, and the rationality of this method was proved.