国家通用航空2020年战略目标实现度评价研究

Study on the Evaluation of Strategic Achievement of National General Aviation in 2020

本文采用多元线性回归和投资乘数理论,对2020年通航发展目标进行了预测和评价;采用情景分析法,预测各种因素对国家2020年通航战略目标实现度的影响,得出对通航业总规模影响最大的是居民边际消费倾向(MPC)的变化趋势,其次分别是通航机场及配套设施建设投资、通航运营、通航制造;最后对通航发展提出了相关建议。

This paper used the theory of multiple linear regression and investment multiplier to forecast and evaluate the general aviation development target of 2020. The scenario analysis method was presented to forecast the related factors＇ impacts on the achievement of the general aviation strategy in 2020. We found that to the size of the general aviation industry, the most influential factor was the trend of the Marginal Propensity to Consume （MPC）, followed by the investment for airport and ancillary facilities construction, output of general aviation operations, and output of general aircrafts＇ manufacturing. Finally, some proposals about general aviation ware put forward.