基于PVAR模型的我国石油工业投资、碳排放和经济增长关系研究

Research on the Relationship among China Petroleum Industry Investment,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth based on PVAR Model

为研究石油工业投资、石油工业碳强度和经济增长三者之间的关系,建立了"石油工业投资-碳强度-经济增长"三元交互影响结构,数据来源于我国27个省、市、自治区。Johansen协整检验结果表明,三者存在长期的稳定关系;面板自向量回归模型(PVAR)结果表明:石油工业碳强度与石油工业投资互为Granger原因,且两者存在较为显著的反向关系,即石油工业碳强度降低对石油工业投资有显著促进作用,石油工业投资增长会促进经济增长,而经济增长又会推动石油工业碳强度降低;脉冲响应图和方差分解结果表明各变量自身具备较为显著的惯性作用,即各自的变化对自身的影响贡献度最大;变系数模型检验结果表明各省、市、自治区间石油工业碳强度对石油工业投资的促进作用存在区域性差异。在此基础上,为我国石油工业发展提出增加低碳技术投资、加强低碳技术创新投资、平衡石油工业碳排放的区域性差异、健全低碳经济相关法律法规、发挥政府部门监督调控作用等建议。

＂Petroleum industry investment,carbon intensity and economic growth＂ triple interaction structure was established for the research on the relationship among them.The data came from 27 provinces,cities and au- tonomous regions in China.Johansen co-integration test result demonstrates that there is long-term stable rela- tionship among them.PVAR model results show that the carbon intensity and investment of petroleum industry has mutual Granger reasons ,and there are obvious inverse relationship between them ,that is to say ,low car- bon intensity has obvious positive effects on the investment of petroleum industry,petroleum industry invest- ment growth may promote economic growth,and economic growth will reduce carbon intensity;impulse re- sponse graphs and variance decomposition results show that all the variables themselves have more significant effects of inertia,which means their own changes contribute most to themselves;the testing results of varying coefficient model show that regional differences exist in the positive impacts of the carbon intensity on the investment of the petroleum industry.Based on that,some suggestion for the development of China petroleum industry were given：to increase investment of low-carbon technology,to strengthen innovation investment of the low-carbon technology,to balance regional differences of carbon emissions of the petroleum industry,to improve laws and regulations of low-carbon economy and to play supervision and regulation role of the gov- ernment sectors.