中国经济新常态的量化识别与形成原因

Quantitative Identification and Causes of the New Normal of Chinese Economy

新常态指经济增长速度出现了结构性变化并呈现新的稳态形式,是当前和未来一段时间我国经济发展的国家战略判断。文章尝试基于条件马尔可夫状态转移模型对自从改革开放以来中国经济进行划分,量化识别中国经济进入新常态的历史时刻,为从经验分析角度深入分析新常态奠定基础。实证结果显示,1995年第2季度至2005年第4季度为中国经济旧常态时期,2008年第1季度至今为中国经济新常态时期,其余为过渡期。此外,文章进一步应用时变参数模型从要素禀赋视角探讨了中国经济新常态形成原因,发现各要素对经济增长的作用强度并未发生较大改变,经济新常态的形成主要源自于就业人口与全要素生产率的增长率下降。

The new normal The is that the rate of economic growth has changed structurally and future presents a new steady state.new normal is a national the strategy judge to the current and economic condition reform China,which development Markov in highlights importance of its in-depth China study.Based since on model,this paper state and transition attempts to divide the economy the and normal,which quantitative identifies when Chinese economy new has entered the new opening will lay show：the foundation for the the old the In empirical normal analysis of the normal.The empirical the results quarter the Chinese and economy new is in during quarter the second quarter during of 1995 to fourth time of 2005 in is time the the2008;normal since first of the remaining the Chinese economy addition,from endowment,this transition varying period.the perspective of factor paper China＇s uses theparameter model to of explore the the causes of the new normal form of economy.The show：the greatly;results the intensity factors to economic growth has not changed the formation of new economic productivity.norm is mainly from the decline of the growth rate of employed population and total factor