产业政策推动地方产业结构升级了吗？--基于发展型地方政府的理论解释与实证检验

Do Industrial Policies Promote Industrial Structure Upgrading? Theory and Evidence from China's Development-oriented Local Government

本文在理论阐述政府产业政策对产业结构优化升级的作用机理及依赖条件的基础上,实证分析了产业政策对地方产业结构优化升级的影响程度及机制。本文创新地利用产业相关的地方性法规和地方政府规章对产业政策予以定量识别,结合省区面板数据,实证检验产业政策在产业结构合理化和高度化中的驱动作用,并考察产业政策力量与市场力量的协同互补效应以及政府能力在产业政策影响机制中的作用。研究发现,产业政策的出台与实施显著促进了地区产业结构合理化和高度化;产业政策对产业结构优化升级的推进作用高度依赖于地方市场化程度;产业政策对结构优化升级的推进作用还取决于地方政府能力。上述发现表明,作为发展中经济体,中国的各级政府能够发挥发展型政府角色,在顺应市场深化和机制完善的基础上,借助政府能力与政策工具,合理制定和推行产业政策,实现产业结构升级与市场经济发展。

Since the reform and opening-up, China＇s local governments at all levels have played a pragmatic and developmental role and have generally pursued economic growth as emphasized by mainstream theories. Under the framework of central fiscal and administrative decentralization, they possess considerable administrative and fiscal power to introduce and implement industrial policies. The economic independence of China＇s various local governments affords them the independence and possibility to develop local industries. Therefore, China＇s local sample can be exploited to study how governments introduce industrial policies, further assess whether industrial policies can promote industrial development and discuss the conditions needed for success. Under the theoretical framework of development-oriented government, this paper discusses the internal logic of the introduction and function of local industrial policies. Furthermore, it emphasizes elaborating the mechanisms and conditions of governmental industrial policies for industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and empirically analyzing the degree and mechanism of industrial policies in local industrial structure optimization and upgrading. This paper systematically collects and sorts out the industry-related local laws and government regulations issued by China＇s provincial governments to establish China＇s provincial local industry regulation dataset. It then uses industry-related local laws and government regulations as a proxy indicator of the intensity of local government industrial policies to quantitatively identify industrial policies. Furthermore, combined with provincial panel data of China＇s 31 provinces from 1997 to 2014, this paper empirically tests the driving functions of industrial policies in industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and investigates the synergy effects of industrial policies, market forces and government capacity on the influencing mechanisms of industrial policies. The results show that the introduction and implementation of industrial policies significantly promote regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading. Such a promoting effect of industrial policies on industrial structure optimization and upgrading is highly dependent on the degree of local marketization and local government capacity. The degree to which industrial policies＇ promoting effects depend on the degree of marketization and government capacity is statistically and economically important. As a developing economic entity, China＇s governments at all levels can play a development-oriented role and reasonably introduce and implement industrial policies to realize industrial structure upgrading and market economy development with the help of government capacity and policies based on the adaptation to market deepening and mechanism improvement. The main contribution of this paper is to deepen the understanding of establishing and implementing effective government policies, which is reflected in several ways. First, this paper provides a logical theoretical framework for understanding the effects of industrial policies based on the perspective of development-oriented government. Second, it measures industrial policies based on local laws and government regulations to expand the measurement perspective in the literature, the rationality and feasibility of which are demonstrated. Third, this paper not only empirically tests the possibility of industrial policies to promote industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, but also investigates how to better develop this possibility. In particular, it returns to the origin of the basic market role and emphasizes that the relationships between government industrial policy effects and market power demonstrate more complementarity. Fourth, this paper discusses both market and government failure, and uses rigorous empirical demonstration to emphasize that the effectiveness of government policy intervention inevitably depends on the administrative capacity and efficiency of the government （ state capacity）.