预期、货币政策与房地产泡沫——来自省际房地产市场的经验验证

Expectation,Monetary Policy and Real Estate Bubble:An Empirical Evidence from Provincial Real Estate Market

本文运用房价收入比对各省份的房地产泡沫进行合理测度,并以房地产泡沫值为基础,构建消费者购房选择与房地产泡沫模型,运用2006—2016年我国30个省份的面板数据,采用动态面板系统广义矩估计(SYSGMM)对货币政策因素、预期因素、需求因素、供给因素与人口因素等方面进行实证检验,发现预期、货币政策与非住房消费是影响房地产泡沫的主要因素,其中消费者预期对房地产泡沫变动的影响最大,这种影响程度在初期效果逐渐增强,其后缓慢衰退,最后进入平稳期。因此,需要在预期的初期及时进行调控,加快进入预期衰退周期,维持平稳期状态。可见,引导消费者预期与合理控制房地产市场信贷量增长是有效抑制房地产泡沫过快膨胀的有效方法。

This paperuses housing price to income ratio to estimatereal estate bubblein different provinces. Basing on the real estate bubble estimation,this paper constructs house buyer＇s consumption choice theory and real estate bubble model,empirically tests and explains the monetary policy factor,expectation factor,demand factor,supply factor and demographic factor by using dynamic panel model Sys-GMM with panel data of 30 provinces during 2006—2016. The results demonstrate that expectation,monetary policy and non-housing consumption are the main influence factors of real estate bubble. Among them,consumer expectetion has the most important influence on the real estate bubble. In early stage,the influencing degree increases rapidly,then decreases slowly,and finally enters a stable period. Therefore,the expectation needsto be regulated and controlledin the early stage in order to accelerate into the expected recession cyclemaintaining a stable state. Guiding consumer expectation and controlling real estate market loan are the most effective ways to restrain real estate bubble＇s expansion.