经济转型期基于制度要素的收入分配差距与经济增长的相关性研究--以日本“国民收入倍增计划”为鉴

The Income Distribution Gap and the Sustainable Development of Economy in the Period of Economic Transition in China:Japan's “National Income Doubling Plan”for Reference

在新常态的经济转型期,保持经济增长并兼顾经济的平稳性与协调性发展是当前我国的重要战略性课题。笔者选取了代表我国不同经济发展水平的东部、中部和西部地区的15个省份在1995—2014年的面板数据,运用门限回归模型,就影响收入分配差距的城市化水平、对外贸易依存度、人力资本积累度以及政府财政干预度的四个制度变量对经济增长的门限效应进行了实证分析,并进一步检验了人力资本积累度要素下收入分配差距和经济增长的相关性。在解析日本"国民收入倍增计划"实施策略的基础上,立足于提高社会人力资本积累度的视点,为转型期中国经济的可持续发展提出了加大国家对基础教育的投入、人力资本投入向社会弱势群体倾斜、进一步充实和完善科技教育制度、大力发展职业教育和开展企业内职业培训等可供参考的政策性建议。

In the new normal economic transition period, how to maintain economic growth and take into account the stability of the economy and the coordinated development is an important strategic task. This paper selects the panel data of fifteen provinces and cities in the eastern, central and western regions on behalf of the economic development level of our country in 1995-2014, using threshold regression model, which affects the income distribution gap of the urbanization level, foreign trade dependence, and human capital accumulation , the government financial intervention four institutional variables, empirical analysis of the threshold effect of economic growth, and further examine the relationship between income distribution and economic growth under the system of human capital accumulation. Then, based on the analysis and the implementation strategy of ＂national income doubling plan＂, on the viewpoint of improving social human capital accumulation and human comprehensive ability, it provides policy suggestions of how to should increase the investment in basic education of national capital, the investment of human capital should be in favor of the social vulnerable groups , enrich the system of science and technology education, vigorously develop the vocational education and the development of enterprise vocational training, etc, for the sustainable development of Chinese economy in the transition period.