基于路径分析法的能源结构影响因素效应分析与政策优化

本文基于55个国家的110个样本数据,采用路径分析方法 ,运用Amos Graphics软件对能源供给结构、能源消费结构各影响因素的直接影响效应、间接影响效应以及因果关系作用机理进行了研究。研究表明:能源供给结构、碳排放约束、城镇化水平、资源条件、经济水平、科技水平依次对能源消费结构产生由大到小的总影响;能源消费结构、碳排放约束、资源条件、城镇化水平、经济水平、科技水平依次对能源供给结构产生由大到小的总影响。根据研究结论,从加快推进能源供给侧结构性改革、通过外部能源供给优化国内能源供给结构、从需求侧倒逼能源结构调整以及提高能源科技水平和利用效率四个方面提出了优化建议。

The direct and indirect effects of energy supply and consumption structures and the causal relationship of all factors are studied based on 110 samples of 55 countries, using path analysis method and Amos Graphics software. The results show that energy supply structure, carbon emission constraints, urbanization level, coal resource condition, economy level and science and technology level have total effect on energy consumption structure in descending order. Energy consumption structure, carbon emission constraints, coal resource condition, urbanization level, economy level and science and technol- ogy level have total effect on energy supply structure in descending order. According to the results, we put forward sugges- tions from four aspects, including boosting structural reforms of energy supply side, optimizing domestic energy structure through external energy supply, forcing energy structure adjustment from the demand side and improving the level of ener- gy technology and efficiency.