房价上涨对企业投资的“抵押效应”和“挤出效应”——来自中国上市公司的证据

本文以Iacoviello(2005)模型为框架,探讨了房价上涨产生的"抵押效应"和"挤出效应",并利用2007-2014年中国上市公司的数据进行经验验证。结论表明:对于融资约束较强的民营企业而言,随着房价上涨,抵押品的价值会增加,使其更容易获得贷款从而扩大投资,即"抵押效应";而对于融资约束较弱的国有企业而言,一方面"抵押效应"并不明显,另一方面由于民营企业的投资增加提高了资本品的价格,从而挤压了国有企业的投资规模,即"挤出效应"。这些结论带来以下政策启示:避免房价的大幅震荡有利于经济的平稳发展;降低企业的融资约束可以降低经济对房地产的依赖;抑制投机需求有利于防止房价过快上涨。

The paper discusses the ＂collateral effect＂ and ＂crowding-out effect＂ of house price rise with the Iacoviello （2005） model as the framework, and uses the data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2014 to make the verification. The conclu- sion is the following： for the private enterprises with strong financing constraints, the value of collateral will increase with the increase of house prices, which makes it easier to obtain loans and thus expands the scale of investment, which is the ＂mortgage effect＂; for the state-owned enterprises with weak financing constraints, the ＂collateral effect＂ is not obvious on the one hand, and on the other hand, because of the increase in the investment of private enterprises, the price of capital goods has been increased, which has squeezed the investment scale of state-owned enterprises, which is the ＂crowding-out effect＂. These conclusions bring the following policy enlightenments： avoiding the sharp turmoil of housing prices is con- ducive to the steady development of the economy; reducing corporate financial constraints can reduce the economic depen- dence on real estate; suppression of speculative demand is conducive to prevent housing prices from rising too fast.