劳动力流动模式、宏观经济波动与社会福利——基于包含正规就业与非正规就业的NK-DSGE模型

The Mode of Labor Mobility,Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Social Welfare——A NK-DSGE Framework with Formal and Informal Employment

我国正在推进一系列与正规部门有关的改革措施。基于这一事实,本文将不同劳动力流动模式引入包含非正规就业的NK-DSGE模型,并考察了劳动力流动模式的宏观经济效应。研究结果发现:第一,劳动力流动模式的差异显著改变了外生冲击的效应;第二,劳动力流动性的差异对于宏观经济波动以及社会福利均具有显著的影响。当前我国进行的改革推动了正规部门的"有进有出",有助于推动劳动力的自由流动。因此,基于本文的结论,这些改革措施有助于缓和我国宏观经济波动以及改善我国的社会福利。

A series of policies related to the formal sectors is proposed in China. Based on this fact, we introduce the informal employment into the NK-DSGE model, and investigate the macroeconomic effects of alternative style of labor mobility. The result shows that ： （ 1 ） the style of labor mobility alters the effects of exogenous shocks significantly ; （2） the style of labor mobility has significant impact on both macroeconomic volatilities and social welfare. The labor market reform now promotes the employee in and out of formal sectors, and also promotes the mobility of labor. So, based on the conclusion of this paper, these reform measures may help to alleviate the fluc- tuations of macroeconomy and improve the social welfare.