中国式产业政策对产能过剩的影响效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的经验分析

A Study of the Effect of Chinese Industrial Policy on Industrial Sector Overcapacity——An Empirical Analysis Based on China 's Provincial Panel Data

产业政策是否引致我国产能过剩备受争议,利用中国2001-2011年省级面板数据,实证结果发现,产业政策对产能过剩的形成具有显著的正向影响效应,究其机理,尽管产业政策提高了工业部门的技术效率,但产业政策引发的产能扩张却显著降低了行业的设备利用率;在经济发展水平较低的地区,地方政府越有可能发生激励扭曲,产业政策引致产能过剩的可能性更大;市场化水平的提高有利于弱化地方政府落实产业政策的激励扭曲,降低政策资源错配的程度,进而缓解产业政策对产能过剩的正向影响。

Whether Industrial policy has caused China＇s overcapacity is controversial. Based on the panel data of China from 2001 to 2011, the empirical results show that industrial policy has a significant positive effect on the formation of overcapacity. Although industrial policy has improved the technical efficiency of industrial sectors, the expansion of production capacity caused by industrial policy has significantly reduced the equipment utilization rate of the industry. In regions with low level of economic development, local govern- ments are more likely to impose incentive distortions and the possibility of causing surplus is greater; improving marketization is conducive to weaken the incentives of local governments to implement industrial policy distortions, reduce the degree of mismatch of policy resources, and ease the positive impact of the industrial policy on overcapacity.