经济可持续发展视角下的人口结构预测

Demographic Structure Prediction Based on Economic Sustainable Development

针对人口结构评价与预测问题,先建立人口结构可持续发展指标体系,再构建隶属度函数,对不同省市地区人口结构状况进行评价分级,最后针对A地区运用Logistic阻滞增长模型、Leslie模型等分别对实行二孩政策前后及全面放开生育政策后的人口结构进行预测,得到不同条件下A地区未来人口的性别结构和年龄结构。

In view of sustainable development index is established to evaluate the region, we use logistic block structure before and after the reproductive policy, obtaining the population structure evaluation and forecasting problem, firstly, the system of population structure is established. Then, the membership function population structure of different provinces and cities. Lastly, aiming at the A growth model, Leslie model and other models to predict the demographic implementation of the two children policy and the comprehensive release of the gender and age structure of the future oooulation under different conditions.