农业转移人口城市定居意愿实证研究与市民化推进策略——基于2015年武汉城市圈农业转移人口动态监测数据的分析

An Empirical Study on Settlement Intention of the Agriculture Migrant Population and the Strategies of Citizenization——Based on Agriculture Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data in Wuhan City Circle 2015

农业转移人口的城市定居意愿直接影响新型城镇化战略的推进实施。利用2015年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据库中提取的"武汉城市圈农业转移人口数据",建立二元Logistic模型,对武汉城市圈农业转移人口流入地城市定居意愿进行实证分析。研究结果表明,农业转移人口偏好大城市,城市选择呈现由大到小的层级性;对农业转移人口城市定居意愿具有正向影响的因素包括:代际中的"70后"、相对较高的教育程度、省内流动、较好就业身份;具有反向影响的因素包括:流动时间长、学龄子女随迁、低龄留守儿童、城镇职工医疗保险;不显著的因素包括:性别、婚姻、家庭收支比、住房支出收入比、恩格尔系数、就业单位性质、参保新型农村合作医疗保险、参保城乡居民合作医疗保险、参保城镇居民医疗保险。据此从经济、空间布局以及政府公共服务供给等方面提出了推进农业转移人口市民化的策略。

The settlement intention of the agriculture migrant population affects the implementation of New Urbanization Strategy. Based on the agriculture migrant population dynamic monitoring survey data in Wuhan City Circle in 2015, this paper establishes a Binary Logistic model and analyzes the settlement intention of agriculture migrant population. The results show that the migrants prefer big cities. The factors including the generation of 1970s, relatively high education level, transferring in the same province, floating for business and higher employment status positively affect the migrants＇ intention to settle in cities. Factors such as, long floating time, floating with school-age children, young left-behind children and urban employee basic medical insurance, negatively affect the settlement intention. Factors such as, gender, marriage, household income and expenditure ratio, housing expenditures, Engel coefficient, employment unit nature, the new rural cooperative medical insurance, the urban and rural residents＇ cooperative medical insurance, the urban residents＇ medical insurance, are insignificant factors. Based on these results, it proposes that government should put great emphasis on economy, spatial distribution and the supply of public services.