基于拓展的购买力平价方法衡量人民币均衡汇率——全球和新兴经济体的视角

Measuring RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based Extended Purchasing Power Parity——From the Perspective of Global and Emerging Economies

本文通过拓展的购买力平价模型测算人民币均衡实际汇率和均衡名义汇率,并对人民币兑美元汇率失衡程度进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)从1990年开始,人民币均衡实际汇率和名义汇率一直处于不断升值的状态,根据拓展的购买力平价模型,人民币兑美元汇率随着相对人均收入的增加而上升;(2)1994~2004年期间,实际汇率基本处于均衡状态;(3)2004年开始,实际汇率偏离均衡汇率,表现为人民币汇率的失调。从2005~2015年为人民币汇率低估时期,但低估程度在2015年时为最小。

Based the extended purchasing power parity model, the authors of this paper measure the equilibrium real exchange rate and equilibrium nominal exchange rate of RMB, and present an empirical analysis of the imbalance degree of RMB exchange rate against US dollar. It＇s found that, （1） the RMB equilibrium real exchange rate and nominal exchange rate have been in a state of continuous appreciation since 1990, and according to the extended purchasing power parity model, the RMB exchange rate against US dollar rises with the increase in relative per capita income; （2） the real exchange rate was basically in an equilibrium state during 1994-2004; （3） since 2004, the real exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium exchange rate, the performance of which is that the RMB exchange rate is dislocated. The RMB exchange rate was undervalued during 2005-2015, and the undervalued degree in 2015 was the smallest.