雅砻江流域水情预报方案

Hydrological Forecast Project of Ya-lung River Basin

雅砻江是金沙江左岸最大支流,流域面积大,气候、地形地貌条件复杂。流域内规划有多级电站,其中部分电站已建成运行,部分电站正在施工建设。雅砻江流域水情预报的任务是实现各电站的流量预报、施工水尺预报。通过对流域的分析,设置了预报断面,介绍了水情预报流程。选择了流量预报模型、水位预报模型、实时校正模型,考虑电站调蓄作用对水情预报的影响,采用雅砻江流域的水雨情资料对预报模型参数进行了率定,统计了各预报断面的合格率。根据预报方案编制了预报系统,利用2016年的资料进行了验证,结果表明,编制的方案适合雅砻江流域,满足日常生产的需要。

Ya - lung River is the largest tributary on left bank of Jinsha River and there is a large basin area with complicated climate and topography - geomorphic conditions. There are some cascade hydropower stations, some of which are already in operation and some of which are under construction. The hydrological forecasting task of Ya - lung River basinis runoff forecast and water level forecast. Based on the analysis of river basin, we set up the forecasting section and hydrological forecasting process introduction. We selected the model of runoff forecasting, water level forecasting and real - time correction. Having considered the influence of regulation effect of power station on hydrological forecasting, the forecast model which we selected were calibrated with water and rainfall information in Ya - lung river basin. According to the forecasting project, we have made a prediction system. This project was validated by the measured data in 2016. The results showed that the projectwas suitable for Ya - lung River Basin and met the daily production needs.