基于Bow-tie模型的高铁运营安全风险分析

Safety risk analysis of high-speed train operation based on Bow-tie model

为对高铁运营过程中具体环节进行风险分析,确保高铁安全运营,提出构建高铁运营安全的Bow-tie模型.首先,明确高铁运营过程中的风险事件;然后,通过对高铁运营过程中3种典型风险事件:高速列车脱轨、列车冲突以及列车火灾,进行事故树定性分析,计算各基本事件的重要度,找出对顶事件的影响程度最大的基本事件;最后,按消除源头、风险预防、防止恶化及减轻后果的优先级在高铁运营过程中加以实施控制措施,提出事故前预防屏障及事故后保护屏障,构建高铁运营安全Bow-tie模型.研究结果表明:Bow-tie模型可以应用于目前高速铁路运营风险管理的日常教育培训、突发情况的应急处理及事故发生后的调查分析.

In order to analyze risks in the process of high-speed operation specifically and ensure the security of the high-speed operation, this paper put forward a high-speed train operation safety Bow-tie model. Firstly, this study identified the risk events in the process of high-speed operation; Then, based on the fault tree qualitative, analyzed the three typical risk events in the process of high-speed operation： high-speed train derailment, the conflict between train and the train fire. The importance degree of basic events were calculated to find out which affects top event the most; Finally, implemented control measures according to the priority of eliminating source, risk prevention, preventing deterioration and mitigating the consequences in the process of high-speed operation. The prevention barriers before and after accident were put forward, and high speed rail operation safety Bow-tie model was established. The results show that the Bow-tie model can be applied to the daily education and training, emergency rescue and the investigation of the emergency.