土地整治项目快速估算模型的建立

Establishment of Rapid Estimation Models for Land Reclamation Projects

为提高土地整治预算效率,快速、合理、有效地预测工程投资造价,通过对8个典型代表省的166个土地整治项目进行投资分析,基于客土回填、农用井、渠道+管道组合类型分别建立单位面积投资与各单项工程投资之间的多元回归模型,并对该模型进行检验及实例验证分析。结果表明:客土回填、农用井和渠道+管道组合3种类型的回归模型分别为y=1 689.099+59.459x_1、y=1 870.219-13.13x_2+28.04x_3和y=5 269.069-42.265x_2-15.033x_3,所建立的多元回归模型能够对全国的土地整治项目进行准确估算,模型总体回归显著,满足精度要求,具有较好的实用性。

The multiple regression models between unit area investment and investment of each single project（soil back-fill,village well and channel＋ pipeline）are respectively established by analyzing the investment situation of 166 land reclamation projects from 8typical provinces and the models are tested and analyzed by the example verification to improve budget efficiency of land reclamation and rapidly,reasonably and effectively forecast engineering investment cost.Results：The regression model of the soil back-fill,village well and channel＋ pipeline type is y=1 689.099＋59.459x1,y=1 870.219-13.13x2＋28.04x3 and y=5 269.069-42.265x2-15.033x3 respectively.The land reclamation projects can be accurately estimated by the established multiple regression models,which indicates that the regression models with a significant population regression and higher precision requirement has a better practicability.