基于VAR模型的安徽省经济增长实证分析

The empirical analysis of economic grouth in Anhui Province based on VAR

为进一步研究资本投入尤其是健康人力资本投入对安徽省经济增长的影响,选取安徽省1980—2015年36a间的时间序列数据进行研究,通过建立VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解实证分析健康人力资本、物质资本和劳动力投入对经济增长的作用。分析表明:四者之间存在着协整关系,物质资本投入对经济增长具有显著促进作用与贡献率,其次是健康人力资本对经济增长明显的促进作用,并结合安徽省经济发展实际情况,提出两点建议。

To further study capital investment,especially health human capital investment,has an impact on economic growth of Anhui Province.The 36 years of time series data of Anhui Province from 1980to2015 are chosen to study.The paper uses VAR model,cointegration test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to analyze the effect of health human capital,material capital and labor input on economic growth.The result of analysis shows there is a cointegration relationship among four variables.The material capital investment has a significant effect on the economic growth and brings a high contribution rate to economic growth,and the same is health human capital.Based on the positive effect of health human capital on economic growth,according to the actual situation of economic development in Anhui Province,two suggestions are put forward.