中国交通运输能源消费:变化趋势、影响因素与需求预测

Energy Consumption in Transport: An Assessment of Changing Trend,Influencing Factors and Consumption Forecast

交通运输是全社会能源消费的第三大领域。系统研究我国包括交通运输行业能耗和私人轿车能耗在内的交通运输能耗,分析交通运输能耗的变化趋势和影响因素,预测2016—2020年我国交通运输行业能源消费需求。研究发现:至2020年,我国交通运输能耗将继续增加;人口、GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇化率的变化趋势将增加交通运输行业能耗,研发投入和产业结构调整尚不能显著减少交通运输行业能耗;在私人轿车保有量大幅度增加的情况下,即使单车平均行驶里程保持不变、百公里油耗下降,我国私人轿车能耗仍将持续增加;总体上,我国私人轿车能耗的年增加幅度将高于交通运输行业能耗的增加幅度。

Transport is the third largest type of the social energy consumption. This article systematically analyzes transport energy consumption in terms of both sector and private car energy consumption, explores its changing trends, influencing factors, and predicts the need for future energy consumption in short period. It is found that, by 2020 transport energy consumption will keep rising. The changing trend of population, GDP, urban per capita disposable income and urbanization rate will be closely related to the rise of transport sector energy consumption, while R＆D investment and industrial structure adjustment will not substantially reduce transport sector energy consumption. Based on the fact that private car ownership will rise substantially, though the average vehicle millage may remain constant and per 100 km fuel consumption will keep dropping, the energy consumption of private car keep increasing; as a whole, the increasing range of the energy consumption of the private car is higher than that of transport sector energy consumption.