城市CIS物理关联脆弱性的动态分析方法

Dynamic Assessment Method of Urban Critical Infrastructure System Physical Interdependency Vulnerability

本文以城市关键基础设施系统(Critical Infrastructure System,CIS)为研究对象,将关键基础设施之间组成的复杂物理网络划分为个体层面、中观层面和系统层面三种类型,从物理关联势差的角度分析了城市CIS内部物理关联机理。根据城市CIS物理关联特性,引入元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA),以一种物理资源为主导建立模型,采用"自底向上"的方法,从微观关键基础设施活动推出宏观城市CIS表现。选取元胞连通性、元胞正常状态变化率和传输效率作为脆弱性评估指标,估算不同时间点城市CIS脆弱性的动态变化,实现物理关联脆弱性的动态分析,并运用加权平均值作为一段时间内城市CIS脆弱值。最后,以S城市为例,对物理关联脆弱性动态分析方法的合理性和有效性进行验证,评估结果为城市CIS保护提供支持。

Taking urban critical infrastructure systems（CIS） as the research object, this paper divides the physical network among three different types of critical infrastructures into individual level, medium level and system lev- el, and then analyzes the urban CIS internal physical interdependency mechanism from the perspective of physi- cal potential. According to urban CIS physical interdependency features, this paper researches manifestation of big system（Macro） from activities of critical infrastructure （Micro） by introducing a bottom-up research method named Cellular Automata（CA） , and then using cellular connectivity, the states of norm cellular and transmission efficiency as indexes of vulnerability, estimates system vulnerability of different time points and takes the average weighted over a period of time as the final vulnerability value to implement the dynamic vulnerability assessment of urban CIS physics interdependency; Last, taking S city as an example, it verifies the reasonability and effec- tivity of this dynamic vulnerability assessment method, and the results also can provide the suggestions for urban CIS protection.