“十三五”期间我国不同类型高校教育财政投资配置结构比例预测——基于普通本科与高职院校数据的分析

Forecasting on the Structure of Financial Investment in Higher Education During the “13th Five-Year Plan”——Based on the data of the ordinary and vocational universities

运用趋势分析、ARIMA、Holter-Winter非季节模型等多种方法的组合模型预测了我国2016—2020年普通本科院校和高职院校财政投资配置比例。结果表明:2016—2020年间,若我国普通本科院校规模比例在0.49-0.60间变动,生均预算内经费占比保持在2.49-2.67之间,则我国普通本科院校财政投资总规模占比的可行区间为0.83-0.86,高职院校占比则由0.17下降至0.14。整体来看,"十三五"期间我国高职院校投资占比呈下降态势,而同时高职院校在校生规模占比持续增加,财政经费结构的不均衡配置将会阻碍高职院校的发展。

Based on trend analysis, ARIMA model,Holter-Winter non-seasonal model and combination method to forecast the scale of financial investment on different types of colleges from 2016 to 2020.The research finds out： during the ＂13th Five-year Plan＂, if the scale proportion of general universities varies from 0.6 to 0.49,the proportion of average expenditure is kept between 2.67 and 2.49, then the feasible range of the total financial investment for general undergraduate universities in China is from 0.83 to 0.86, while the vocational colleges range from 0.17 to 0.14. This research suggests that higher vocational college investments will be accounted for a decrease during the ＂13th Five-year Plan＂, while the proportion of students in higher vocational colleges continued to increase, the imbalance of financial structure will continue to hinder the development of vocational colleges.