略论中国经济增长的新动力

On the New Motive Force of China＇s Economic Growth

目前中国经济正处于＂三期叠加＂的特定阶段,我们既要持之以恒地推动经济结构战略性调整,又要能尽快找到未来的经济增长动力。对此,笔者认为在探讨动力方面原有的分析框架,即认为拉动中国经济增长的＂三驾马车＂是投资、消费、出口,经过实践证明该框架并不能从根本上解决中国的中长期经济增长问题。而一些学者提出的依靠全要素生产率的提高作为新的分析框架的观点,虽然有一定道理,但也还没有能够抓住经济增长的决定性因素。因此,本文从唯物史观出发,提出经济增长就是一个自然增长过程,核心是人的能力发展,它所依赖的是劳动力的自然增长、劳动者技能的增长和社会对不同行业部门间劳动分布比例关系所进行的调节,这才是真正的动力源泉。在这一观点的基础上,对中国未来经济增长的具体实现路径提出了对策建议。

At present,the Chinese economy is in a special stage of the three phase,we must constantly promote the strategic adjustment of economic structure,but also to find the future economic growth momentum as soon as possible.In this regard,the author believes that the original analysis framework in terms of power,that is,to stimulate China＇s economic growth of the ＂three carriages＂ is the investment,consumption,exports,after practice proves that China＇s long-term economic growth can not be solved fundamentally.While some scholars put forward the view that the total factor productivity is improved as a new analytical framework,although there is a certain reason,but also has not been able to seize the decisive factor of economic growth.Therefore,this article from the historical materialism,put forward economic growth is a natural growth process,it is dependent on the natural growth of the labor force,the growth of labor skills and the adjustment that society put on labor distribution ratio relationship between different sectors,which is the real power source.On the basis of this view,it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the future economic growth of China.