城市社会的城市化——东北和广东省的经验

Urbanization in Urban Society: Evidences from Four Provinces in Northeast China and Guangdong Province

中国东北三省和广东省比全国早10~20年进入城市型社会。本文利用2000-2014年的面板数据,分析了东北地区和广东省进入城市社会以后城市化的动力问题。研究发现,在城市社会的初级阶段,城乡收入差距、人均收入、流动人口和城镇登记失业率对城市化仍发挥重要作用;城乡居民消费水平差距对城市化的作用不显著;工业化对城市化的动力作用已经释放完毕,甚至显示出负向变动关系;国有投资比重整体上未通过模型检验,但尚不能断言国有经济拖累城市化进程;对外贸易对城市化的影响不显著,而外商直接投资对城市化有挤出效应;固定资产投资、政府干预对城市化速度的推动作用不显著甚至为负。与进入城市社会之前相比,城市化的传统动能仍然较强,新型城镇化动能不足。

Northeast China and Guangdong province are a decade or two earlier than the rest of the country in terms of entering into the urban society. Using the panel data（2000-2014） from the above regions, the authors take a look into the dynamic mechanism after entering into the urban society. It is found that the factors of rural-urban income disparity, GRP per capita, flowing population and urban registered unemployment rate are still significant in the early stage of urban society. Unfortunately the rural-urban consumption level disparity is not significant in the urbanizing process. The driven forces from traditional industrialization to urbanization had been used up, functioning negatively sometimes. We can not hold that state-owned economy inhibited the process of urbanization, though it is not tested significantly. The impact of foreign trade on urbanization is not significant, while the FDI has crowding out effects towards urbanization. Both variables of fixed capital investment and government expenditures are not significant or even negative in the process of urbanization. Compared to the pre-urbanized society, traditional dynamics for urbanization are still strong, whereas it lacks of robust driving forces for neourbanization.