森林碳汇抵消政策实施影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Influential Factors of Forest Carbon Sink Offset Policy

【目的】从碳汇需求方企业研究森林碳汇抵消政策实施的影响因素,为森林碳汇政策制定提供依据。【方法】基于上海电力、钢铁与化工3个重点减排行业企业调查数据,利用结构方程模型研究企业内部动力、内部压力、外部激励和外部约束等因素对森林碳汇抵消政策实施的影响,其中,调查问卷采用5级李克特量表设计,数据经过正态性检验、因子分析后得到24个指标作为观测变量,且经过模型拟合指标和评价确定最后的影响路径。【结果】企业内部动力对森林碳汇抵消政策实施有显著正影响,路径系数为0.17,其中,降低企业减排成本对森林碳汇抵消政策实施影响最大,为0.973;外部激励对森林碳汇抵消政策实施的直接影响不显著,通过内部动力的间接作用影响显著,路径系数为0.054,其中,贷款和进出口优惠政策的影响路径系数最大,分别为0.999和0.99;外部约束对森林碳汇抵消政策实施有显著正影响,路径系数为0.766,通过内部动力的间接路径系数为0.087,直接路径系数为0.679,其中,媒体宣传的影响路径系数最大,为0.922;对森林碳汇抵消政策实施的总路径作用大小为外部约束>内部动力>外部激励,内部压力对森林碳汇抵消政策实施影响不显著。【结论】企业内部动力对森林碳汇政策实施有正影响,表明加强森林碳汇的抵消作用和环保作用有利于企业支持森林碳汇政策的实施;企业外部激励对森林碳汇政策实施有正影响,表明继续依靠政府支持可以激励企业购买森林碳汇;企业外部约束对森林碳汇政策实施有正影响,表明政府和市场对低碳的呼吁能够引导企业进行低碳经营,有助于森林碳汇市场的发展。本研究结果可为从需求者企业视角制定森林碳汇市场政策、鼓励和引导企业购买森林碳汇提供重要依据。

【Objective】This paper investigates the influential factors of forest carbon sink offset mechanism from the point of enterprise,the carbon sink demander,in order to provide basis for the forest carbon sink policy-making.【Method】Based on the survey data from electric power,steel and chemical enterprises,the key emission industry in Shanghai,using the structural equation model the paper studies the effects of the enterprise internal motivation,internal pressure,external incentive and external constraint on forest carbon sink offset policy,in which the questionnaire design uses the level 5 likert scale,the data gets 24 indicators as observation variables through normality test and factor analysis,and it also determines the final path graph through the model fitting index and evaluation.【Result】The internal motivation has a significantly positive effect on forest carbon sink offset policy,and the path coefficient is 0. 17,in which decreasing the enterprise cost of emission reduction has the greatest influence on forest carbon offset policy,the value is 0. 973; The external incentive has an insignificantly direct effect on forest carbon sink offset policy,however,it showed a significantly indirect effect through internal motivation on forest carbon sink offset policy,and the path coefficient is 0. 054,in which the preferential policy about the loan and import export have the greatest influence on forest carbon sink offset policy,the value is 0. 999 and 0. 99,respectively; The external constraint has a significantly positive effect on forest carbon sink offset policy,and the path coefficient is 0. 766,in which the indirect path coefficient through internal motivation is 0. 087 and the direct path coefficient is 0. 679,the media has the greatest influence on forest carbon sink offset policy,the valueis 0. 922; The order of total path effect on forest carbon sink offset policy is external constraint internal motivation external incentive,and the effect of internal pressure on forest carbon sink offset policy is not significant.【Conclusion】Internal motivation has a positive effect on forest carbon sink policy,which shows that strengthening the offset and environmental effects of the forest carbon sink,helps enterprise to support forest carbon sink policy; External incentive has a positive effect on forest carbon sink policy,showing that continually relying on government support can encourages enterprise to buy forest carbon sink; External constraint has a positive effect on forest carbon sink policy,showing that the call of government and market for low carbon can guide enterprise to carry out low-carbon development,and contribute to the development of forest carbon sink market. This paper provides an important basis to develop forest carbon sink market policy from the point of enterprise,the carbon sink demander,then encourage and guide enterprise to buy forest carbon sink.