空中危险接近的系统动力学机理及仿真研究

Underlying principle and a simulation study of midair collision

为了探索空中危险接近的形成过程与反馈机制,运用系统动力学的方法深入分析了空中危险接近影响因素间的复杂相互作用和回馈效应,建立了空中危险接近发生机理的动态模型,包括管制服务、人力资源和安全三大子系统,利用Vensim软件对其进行模拟仿真,可预测不同场景下空中危险接近的变化趋势。结果表明:乐观场景时,2005—2015年空中危险接近数量呈缓慢增长趋势,2015年之后保持不变,这表明在国内航班量稳步增长时,空中危险接近事件的数量不变,事故率越来越低;悲观场景时,空中危险接近数量一直处于上升趋势,2021年之前缓慢增长,这表明虽然设备故障率和管制员的防撞培训频率不高,但缩短TCAS(Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System,空中交通预警和防撞系统)反应时间能在短期内明显提高管制员的专注程度,从而延缓空中不安全事件的数量增长,但随着2021年后指挥架次的增加,反应时间越短,空中危险接近事件会越多。

In order to explore the aviation flight accident consequential process and the feedback mechanism of the low altitude space air collision,the present paper is aimed at making a thorough investigation and analysis of the complex interaction and feedback influence among the key influential factors,so as to disclose a dynamic background mechanism that may account for the low altitude space collision tragedy. The above said key factors involving the air control safety can mainly include the three subsystems-air traffic control management departments and the air-aviation service human resources based on the system dynamics theory,with the parameters and equations of the control system model being verified through the statistical yearbook and interview survey recordings. As a result,the model we have worked out has been verified effective and reasonable in the aviation control context and the historical tests through the repetitive simulations by using the Vensim software. In addition,the variation tendency of the airspace collisions in 2005-2030 under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios has been forecast by properly adjusting the different related policies and measures,so as for the ideas and data to be supported through the policy and decision making tactics. The simulation results show that,with the steadfast increase of the domestic flights,effective measures should be taken to reduce the air risk accident rate,such as by enhancing the investment supplement and maintenance of the air traffic control equipment and installation,the airport-commanding and the reinforced training of the flight-controlling and instruction delivery personnel,the increase of the TCAS response time of the pilots and ground-service forces,etc. Luckily enough,the number of the air flight collision accidents has been on the very slow rise between2005 and 2015. And,what is more,since 2015,the accident number and seriousness rate has been remaining unchanged,which indicates that the accident rate of the air collision and the actual accident numbers have been getting lower and lower. In spite of the ever-improving situation,the actual air-in collision number has been keeping going up in some ways in recent years pessimistically. Therefore,it is necessary to point it out that the entire scenario of the aviation flight control situation at least before 2021 should be illustrated in the following way： with more and more flying aircraft being put into operation and with the reducing and shortening of the TCAS response time for the fast increase of aviation flight numbers,the flying commanding,control and regulation levels are likely to be fallen behind the urgent increase and expansion need. And,so,there will be appearing a likeliness of shortage of well-qualified civil aviation controllers and therefore may lead to the commanding faults due to the abrupt increase of the airplanes and lack of enough qualified airport administrative and instruction workers. Therefore,with the fast increase of the flying vehicles in the period after 2021,the shorter the response time is with the fast increase of aviation vehicles,the more frequently the air flight accidents would be or might be,including the in-the-air collisions.