基于系统动力学的电动汽车规模推演分析与仿真

Analysis and Simulation of Electric Vehicles Scale Evolution Based on System Dynamics

电动汽车的规模预测是充电服务网络和配电网协同发展的重要基础和依据。利用系统动力学思想分析影响电动汽车发展的各类因素及其相关关系,建立了电动汽车规模推演的系统动力学模型,仿真得到电动汽车未来的发展趋势,并通过构建不同的场景分析电动汽车在不同条件下的发展状况。仿真结果发现:电动汽车购买率呈现S型增长曲线,电动汽车增长将要进入快速增长周期;前期变化主要受政府政策影响,后期技术发展和基础设施建设将成为影响电动汽车发展的重要因素。

The system dynamics model is built based on systematic analysis of the various factors and their relationship.Then the development trend of electric vehicles is simulated with the proposed model.Analysis the development trend of electric vehicle under different conditions by building scenario.It is also can be obtained that the evolution of electric vehicles scale would grow upward fast in future,while the purchasing ratio would be shown as S type curve,in which the change in the early stage would be affected by the government policies,while the development of technology and infrastructure construction will become the most critical factors in the later stage.