人力资本、空间溢出与农业转移人口市民化——基于空间面板数据的经验研究

Human Capital,Spatial Spillovers and Urbanization of Agricultural Transferred Population——An Empirical Research Based on Spatial Panel Data

利用1999~2014年中国31个省市的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,研究了地区人力资本对农业转移人口市民化的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:人力资本表现出显著的空间外溢性,本地人力资本积累推动了区域内农业转移人口市民化。但是,从区域间关系来看,人力资本的集聚效应大于扩散效应,本地人力资本积累对周边地区农业转移人口市民化产生了不利影响,因而人力资本对农业转移人口市民化的总效应并不显著。

Employing the Spatial Durbin model, this paper studies the effect of human capital on urbanization of agricultural population transferred from rural areas with panel data of 31 provinces during 1999 -2014. The study finds that： human capital has significant externality and local human capital accumulation can promote urbanization of regional agricultural transferred population. However, as the agglomeration effect of human capital is bigger than the diffusion effect, local hu- man capital accumulation has negative impact on urbanization of agricultural transferred population in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the total effect of human capital on the urbanization of agricultural transferred population is not significant.