浙江早生春茶霜冻灾害定量评估模型

Quantitative Evaluation Model of Frost Disaster in Early Spring Tea in Zhejiang Province

春季霜冻是影响浙江春茶产量和品质的主要气象灾害。为深入开展浙江省早生春季茶叶霜冻灾害的评估工作,减少浙江省早生茶叶品种遭受春季霜冻灾害的风险,应用2005-2015年浙江省2094个区域自动气象站小时观测资料,以乌牛早和龙井43等其他品种春茶发育热量为始摘期指标,应用GIS技术,得到浙江省乌牛早、龙井43等其他品种春茶始摘期空间分布图。以衢州市乌牛早春茶霜冻害为例,应用自然灾害风险评估理论和技术,从霜冻的危险性、春茶的暴露性和脆弱性及春茶防灾减灾能力等因子指标,采用加权指数求和法,建立了基于浙江省茶树霜冻等级地方标准的春茶霜冻害强度指标、春茶生长发育期模型指标、春茶采摘量模型指标等多因子的定量评估模型,并对2005-2015年霜冻害个例进行检验。结果表明:浙江省乌牛早春茶平均始摘期在2月上旬到3月上旬,而龙井43等其他品种春茶始摘期在2月下旬到3月下旬,早生春茶始摘期从南到北时间后延。由加权指数求和法所建立的定量评估模型,对衢州市2005-2015年57个乌牛早品种霜冻害个例检验结果表明,2006年、2008年、2010年、2014年春茶霜冻害发生频率较高,而2010年3月中旬霜冻害强度最强。2010年3月霜冻发生前,一直持续阴雨天气,导致春茶无法及时抢摘,使大面积春茶受损,灾情损失严重。模型对衢州市乌牛早春茶霜冻害定量评估结果和实际灾情相一致。

Spring frost is the most important meteorological disaster affecting Zhejiang spring tea production and quality. In order to carry out the assessment of frost disaster and reduce the risk of spring frost disaster in Zhejiang province,application of hourly observation data of 2094 meteorological automatic re- gional stations in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2015, and Wuniuzao and Longjing 43 and other varieties spring tea development heat for the index of the start picking period,the spatial distribution of Wuniuzao and Longjing 43 and other varieties early spring tea start picking period in Zhejiang province was obtained by using GIS technology. Taking Wuniuzao spring tea frost damage in Quzhou as an example, based on the theory and technology of natural disaster risk assessment, this paper analyzes the factors such as the risk of frost, the exposure and vulnerability of spring tea, and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation of spring tea. Based on the weighted index method, the quantitative evaluation model of spring tea frost dam- age index, spring tea growth and development model index and spring tea picking model index were estab- lished based on the local standard of tea frost in Zhejiang province. And frost damage cases during the 2005--2015 were tested. The results showed that the average picking period of Wuniuzao spring tea in Zhejiang province was between early February and early March,while Longjing 43 and other varieties of spring tea was between late February to late March. The picking period was postponed later from south to north. Based on the quantitative evaluation model established by the weighted index summation method,57 varieties of Wuniuzao frost damage cases in Quzhou city from 2005 to 2015 were tested. In 2006,2008, 2010,2014 spring tea frost damage occurred in a higher frequency, and the frost damage in mid-March 2010 is the strongest. The rainy weather continued before the frost damage happened in mid-March 2010, leading to spring tea could not be picked in time and large area of spring tea was damaged. The quantitative evaluation results of Wuniuzao spring tea frost damage are consistent with the actual disaster.