基于GIS的河南省小麦干热风时空分布特征及危险性分析

Spatial-temporal Distribution Characteristics and Risk Analysis of Wheat Dry Hot Wind in Henan Province Based on GIS

利用河南省121个国家级地面气象观测站1980 2014年冬小麦生育后期的逐日气象观测资料,分析了河南省冬小麦干热风发生演变趋势和时空分布特征。结果表明:干热风在全省范围内呈减少趋势,其中轻干热风日数递减率为1.6日/a,重干热风日数递减率为0.1日/a。全省轻干热风年均发生日数为0.3日/a,发生概率为10年2遇;重干热风年均发生日数为0.1日/a,发生概率为10年1遇。河南省干热风发生日数和概率整体呈"北部、中部和东部多,西部、南部少"的分布态势。干热风发生日数年代间差异较大,20世纪80年代为多发期和频发期,其次是90年代及21世纪00年代。基于干热风发生日数、发生概率和区域化发生指数指标,建立评估模型对全省范围内干热风的危险性分布进行分析和评估,并结合ArcGIS技术对干热风危险性评估结果进行区划和制图表达。河南省干热风高危险区主要分布在豫北、豫中及豫东的部分地区,其中宜阳干热风危险性风险指数最高;宜阳、孟津、许昌、修武、温县、鹤壁、浚县、原阳、巩义、上蔡、舞阳、襄城地区,干热风发生的危险程度相对较高;西部山区三门峡、洛阳大部分地区和南阳、信阳等南部降水充沛地区为干热风相对低危险区域。

Using daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2014 in later growth stage of winter wheat at 121 stations in Henan province, we analyzed the variation trends and spatial-temporal distribution charac- teristics of winter wheat dry hot wind in Henan. The results show that ： the dry hot wind throughout Henan province showed a trend of decreasing, the decline rate of light dry hot wind days was 1.6 d/a, and the decline rate of heavy dry hot wind days was 0.1 d/a. The light dry hot wind annual average occurrence days was 0.3 d/a, the probability of occurrence was 2 eases in 10 years, the heavy dry hot wind average occurrence days was 0. 1 d/a, the probability of occurrence was 1 case in 10 years. The occurrence days and probability of dry hot wind in Henan province showed＇ northern, central and eastern more, western and southern less＇ pattern. Dry hot wind days showed large interdeeadal differences, occurred frequently in 1980s, then 1990s and 2000s. Based on occurrence days, probability, regionalization index and other indicators of dry hot wind, the evaluation model was established to analyze and evaluate the risk distribu- tion of dry hot wind in the whole province, and the assessment results were regionalized and drew by Arc- GIS. High-risk zones were mainly distributed in parts of northern, central and eastern Henan. The risk index were the highest in Yiyang county, and relatively higher in Yiyang, Mengjin, Xuchang, Xiuwu, Wenxian, Hebi, Xunxian, Yuanyang, Gongyi, Shangcai, Wuyang and Xiangeheng. The western mountains Sanmenxia, Luoyang and southern abundant rainfall areas Nanyang and Xinyang were the low- risk areas.