突发水污染预警应急响应研究与实践的方法学辨析

Methodological analysis on the research and practices on the warning and emergency response to river chemical spill incidents

2005年底松花江硝基苯污染发生至今,我国开展河流突发污染预警应急的研究实践已有10年,有必要对相关应急技术的发展历程及研究实践方法学进行系统梳理.因此,本文运用系统论的原理与方法,对河流突发污染应急预警响应过程中的基础科学问题进行数学抽象与深入剖析.首先梳理归纳了处警后预警应急响应的基本流程,即以"应急溯源"和"风险预警"为主线辅以"应急监测".然后,通过文献计量学分析了预警和溯源的技术成熟度过程及发展趋势.同时,对"污染追踪/溯源"正反问题进行系统论刻画并深入辨析其不确定性与不适定性特征.最后,用相似理论分析和定义了关键研究问题的时空特征尺度.结果表明,本文提出的相关框架、论断和准则可为应急预警响应研究实践提供统一的科学范畴、通用的研究范式与方法论参考.

Since the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill incident at the end of year 2005, Chinese experts have working intensively on the warning and emergency response （EWER） to river chemical spills for the past ten years. It is worthy of reviewing on the progress and development in methodological analysis on EWER. Therefore, this study adopted the system theory approach to conduct mathematical abstraction and in-depth analysis on fundamentally scientific problems on EWER. Firstly, a normalized EWER procedure was defined, which focusing on ＂emergency source inversion＂ and ＂risk early warning＂ assisted with ＂emergency monitoring＂. The historical development and trends of EWER technology were then quantitatively analyzed based on bibliometric and maturity curve. The forward and inversion problems of ＂pollutant transport tracking/source inversion＂, was depicted by system theory- based approaches and their essential uncertain and ill-posed characteristics were discussed. Finally, the spatial and temporal characteristic scales were identified and defined for some key problems of ERWR via similarity theory. The proposed frameworks, arguments and guidelines in this paper provide a unified scientific scope, a generic research pattern and a novel methodology reference for future EWER research.