货币理论重塑:分解与统一分析框架

Remodelling Money Theory:A Decomposition and Unified Analytic Framework of Monetary Theory

长期以来,经济学家对货币理论的研究主要从货币需求分析出发,形成了费雪方程式、剑桥方程式、凯恩斯货币需求模型、后凯恩斯主义货币模型、弗里德曼货币函数等一系列经典理论模式。但是,这些研究模型中,持有可带来收益的金融资产都是无收益货币的负相关因素。至于是否需要有一部分货币专门用来服务金融资产,至少迄今为止,尚无这方面系统的科学论证。文章提出的货币分解理论,试图从理论上对该问题加以探讨。货币具有价值尺度、流通手段、支付手段、贮藏手段和世界货币等多重职能。因而表面同质的货币必然有着内部的异质分工,这是货币分解的基本逻辑。文章采用货币供给侧分解方法,按照货币的流向把政府发行的货币分为流入实体经济的货币和流入虚拟经济的货币;实体经济货币包括交易货币和交易准备货币,虚拟经济货币包括储蓄货币和金融市场货币。在货币总量不变的条件下,这四个组成部分的货币数量随着货币需求动机的不同而有着动态变化,这样就引入了货币流动的动力机制。货币分解理论揭示了货币存量与流量的相对含义,涉及政府、家庭、企业、金融机构和国外部门等市场参与者,同时也与股票、债券和衍生品等市场发生联系——传统货币理论是这一理论的特殊情况,能够涵盖现有相关文献的主要观点并较全面地解释了"中国流动性之谜",可以成为货币理论的统一分析框架。该理论对现实经济现象有较强的解释力,对正确认识世界经济运行规律和政府制定宏观经济政策提供理论支持。

For a long time,monetary theory research of economists has focused on the anal- ysis of the demand for money so that a series of classical theories such as Fisher equation, Cam- bridge equation, Keynesian monetary demand model, post-Keynesian monetary model, and Friedman＇s monetary function have been formed. But, in these models, holding the financial as sets that generate revenues is the negative relative factor of the unyielding money. As for whether there is a need for a part of the currencies to serve financial assets, so far,there is no serious sci- entific argument for this at least. This paper proposes money decomposition theory that tries to discuss the problem theoretically. The money has multiple functions such as value scale, circula- tion means, payment means, storage means and world money. Therefore, there must be an in- ternal division of labor in the homogeneous money that is the essential logic of monetary decom- position. This paper uses the money supply side decomposition method to divide the money issued by governments into the money that flows into the real economy and the money that flows into the fictitious economy according to money flow. Real economic money includes trading money and trading preparing money, and fictitious economic money includes savings money and financial market money. Under the condition of the invariant total amount of money, the money quantity of these four parts has dynamic changes caused by different motives for monetary demand. There- fore, it introduces the dynamic mechanism of monetary movement. Money decomposition theory reveals the relative meaning of money stock and flow. The theory involves governments, fami- lies, firms, financial institutions and foreign departments and other market participants, as well as stocks, bonds and derivatives markets. Every traditional monetary theory is a special case of money decomposition theory. This theory covers the main points of the existing literature and more fully explains ＂China^s liquidity puzzle＂.So that it can be a unified analytic framework for monetary theory. This theory has strong explanatory power to the real economic phenomena, and provides theoretical support for correct understanding of the world economy operation law and macroeconomic policy formulation.