并购商誉是否为股价崩盘的事前信号?——基于会计功能和金融安全视角

Is M&A Goodwill the Prior Signal of Stock Price Crash Risk? From the Perspectives of Accounting Function and Financial Security

文章以我国资本市场中的大规模高溢价并购为背景,以2007-2013年A股非金融上市公司为样本,分析并购商誉是否对股价崩盘风险存在预警作用及其是否可以作为股价崩盘的事前信号。研究发现:(1)相对于未拥有商誉资产的公司,拥有商誉资产的公司的未来股价崩盘风险明显更大,并且商誉资产规模越大,未来的股价崩盘风险也越高;(2)这种提前的信号作用在会计稳健性整体水平不同的公司中存在差异,公司整体的会计稳健性可能是对商誉资产操纵管理形成内部约束的力量,但这种差异在统计上并不显著;(3)这种提前的信号作用在外部治理较差的公司中更明显,即外部分析师跟踪预测和机构投资者持股是监督和约束管理层操纵管理商誉资产的外部治理力量。文章丰富了会计特征对股价崩盘风险影响的相关文献,并为新兴市场国家中公司财务报表数据的会计功能提供了直接可靠的经验证据,同时提醒监管者和投资者可以从会计稳健性的视角出发,通过并购商誉数据来预测公司的股价崩盘风险。

Based on the large-scale high-premium M^As in China＇s capital market, this paper investigates whether M~.A goodwill can be the pre-warning of stock price crash risk and play the role of prior signal of stock price crash risk by taking A-share non-finan- cial listed companies from 2007 to 2013 as the sample. It arrives at the following conclu- sions： firstly, compared to companies without goodwill, companies with goodwill face greater stock price crash risks in the future; and the stock price crash risk increase with the growth of goodwill scale; secondly, this prior signal role differs in companies at differ- ent levels of accounting conservatism, and corporate accounting conservatism as a whole may be the internal power of constraining goodwill asset manipulation, but this difference is not significant statistically; thirdly, compared to the companies with stronger external governance, the prior signal role of goodwill in stock price crash risk is more significant in companies with weaker external governance, namely external analyst tracking forecasts and institutional investor shareholding are external governance power of monitoring and constraining manipulation management of goodwill assets. This paper enriches the litera- ture focusing on the impact of accounting characteristics on companies＇ stock price crash risk, and provides clear and reliable empirical evidence for accounting function of financial statement data in emerging capital market. And meanwhile, it reminds regulators and in- vestors to predict the stock price crash risk through goodwill assets from the perspective of accounting conservatism.