“9·11”以来全球反恐战略困境探析

An Analysis of the Strategic Predicament of the Post-9/11 Global War on Terror

"9·11"事件后,国际社会的一系列反恐努力并未取得预期效果,近年来反而陷入了"越反越恐"的战略困境。它不仅体现为全球范围内恐怖活动案发频率的上升、恐怖袭击所造成的伤亡和危害程度的增加,还包括各类恐怖组织的增多、恐怖活动区域的扩展,以及恐怖势力自身的升级和变异等。造成这一困境的根源无疑是多方面的,除了各国内在因素的差异之外,还包括"圣战"意识形态的全球扩散、以网络为代表的信息技术进步所带来的深远影响、"9·11"后美国单边主义反恐政策的消极作用、全球化的负面后果、国际反恐合作机制的内在缺陷,以及国际格局转型所引发的动荡和不确定性,等等。只有充分认识到造成当前全球反恐战略困境的内在因素,未来全球反恐战争才能更加有的放矢,并有望摆脱当前面临的困境。

The international counter-terrorism efforts have not yet achieved its desired results since the 9/11 attacks, and have instead fallen into a vicious cycle over the past few years. This is evi- denced by the increasing frequency of worldwide terrorist incidents, the number of casualties caused by terrorist attacks, the growing number of terrorist organizations, the geographical expansion of terrorist activities, and the self-transformation of terrorist forces, etc. In addition to different domestic circum- stances, a number of common factors have also contributed to the strategic predicament of the global war on terror, including the global spread of the Jihadi ideology, the far-reaching impact of information technology, the negative consequences of globalization, the U.S. unilateral global counter-terror policy after 9/11, the inherent flaws of the international counter-terror cooperation regime, as well as the turbu- lence and uncertainty caused by the current world structure which is undergoing profound changes. On- ly by taking all these factors into account, can the global war on terror be expected to overcome the cur- rent predicament and have a better-defined objective in view.