房产价值变动、城镇居民消费与财富效应异质性——来自微观家庭调查数据的分析

Changes in Value of Housing,Consumption of Urban Residents and Heterogeneity of Wealth Effect: Analysis Based on the Data of CFPS

本文对2010年和2012年两期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据中的城镇有房家庭进行了配对,构造了两期面板数据,就房屋价值变动对家庭居民消费的影响进行了实证检验,探讨了房屋按揭贷款对于居民消费的影响程度及影响机理,并在此基础上分析了家庭房产差异对于房屋财富效应的异质性影响。研究结果表明:家庭房屋资产对家庭消费具有明显的财富效应;房屋按揭贷款为家庭购房带来"杠杆",当房屋价值提高时会引起更大的财富效应:相比单一住房家庭,多套房家庭的房屋资产具有更明显的财富效应;房产占家庭资产比重较低的家庭,房屋资产的财富效应较大,随着房屋投资属性的降低、消费属性的提高,房屋的财富效应会下降。

This paper constructs a two periods panel data model with the data from CFPS in 2010 and 2012, and studies the effect of housing value changing to the consumption of urban residents with empirical method. It also analyzes the aspect of housing mortgages and the heterogeneity of the wealth to the wealth effect from the housing value. The results show that the house has significant wealth effect on the consumption of urban residents; The housing mortgage provides the leverage for the housing buyers and makes the wealth effect higher; For the families holding multi -house, the wealth effect is more significant; For the families with smaller housing asset to total asset ratio, the wealth effect is higher and the effect becomes lower as the consumption properties are getting bigger while the investment properties are getting smaller.