基于主成分回归的中国马铃薯价格波动影响因素分析

Influential Factors Analysis of Potato Price Fluctuation in China based on Principal Component Regression Method

近年来马铃薯价格剧烈波动时有发生,不利于其产业健康平稳发展。为定量描述各因素对马铃薯价格的影响程度,从供给和需求角度选取了影响马铃薯价格波动的18个因素。回归结果显示,马铃薯价格波动是多种因素综合作用的结果,主要影响因素是蔬菜等相关替代品价格以及城镇化水平、消费者收入水平和恩格尔系数等社会因素,价格受到消费层面因素的影响要大于生产层面因素的影响。从平衡供求、提质增效以及合理布局方面提出了相应的政策建议。

The potato price has fluctuated acutely and frequently in recent years, which goes against the healthy and stable development of potato industry. Aiming to quantitatively describe the impact degree of each factor on potato price, this paper selects 18 factors from perspective of demand and supply. The regression results show that： the potato price is the comprehensive result of various factors, and the major factors are the price of relevant alternatives such as vegetable and social factors including urbanization level, consumers＇ income, Engel＇s coefficient etc. The price is affected by consumption level factors rather than production level factors. At last, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestion from the aspects of balancing the supply and demand to strengthening information service of potato, improving quality and effectiveness to enhance the competition ability, and adjusting the layout structure in time and space.