基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估

A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method

工期不确定以及资源冲突等问题的存在使得项目进度管理更加复杂。为有效地识别工期风险,本文在灰色关键链法的基础上,首先运用一致指数对工序工期进行灰色估计,并综合考虑资源紧张度、工序复杂度、开工柔性、风险偏好、环境不确定性5个影响项目进度的不确定性因素。然后,基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类评估模型确定综合聚类系数,从而进行工期风险评估。最后通过算例分析,快速识别工期风险大的工序,降低工期延误风险,验证所提方法的有效性和实用性。

Duration uncertainty, resource conflict and other issues make project schedule management more complex. In order to effectively identify the duration risk, based on the gray critical chain method, the consistency index is used to make a gray estimation of the duration and the uncertainty factors such as resource stress, process complexity, work flexibility,risk preference and environmental uncertainty are fully considered. Then the duration risk evaluation is carried out by using the clustering coefficient determined based on the gray clustering evaluation model of the triangular whitening weight function. Finally, it is applied into a practical case to identify the processes with high duration risk and reduce the delay risk to prove the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method.